Shared benefit bridge
- Monthly labor value
- $19,500
- Monthly throughput contribution
- $1,800
- Monthly damage and error savings
- $700
- Steady gross monthly benefit
- $22,350
AGV & AMR Fleet Sizing and Payback Calculator
Size AGV and AMR fleets from hourly flow, route time, stops, availability, charging, and reserve capacity, then compare CAPEX, OPEX, NPV, ROI, and payback.
Defaults are fictional examples, not market averages. Replace every value with route logs, pilot evidence, and vendor quotes on the same scope.
Cycle type
Round trip doubles the entered one-way distance; multi-stop loop treats the entered distance as one complete circuit.
1. Flow and route
Define normal, design, and stress demand on one transport unit and cycle boundary.
2. Shared benefits
Apply one automation scope and benefit case to both alternatives so technology and cost differences remain visible.
3. Cash-flow assumptions
Apply delay, ramp, recurring growth, discounting, and the target month to monthly cash flow.
AGV
Alternative inputsPerformance and operation
Use pilot evidence or a vendor simulation on the same scope.
Initial investment
Include control, integration, safety, and training beyond vehicle price.
Recurring, replacement, and residual
Enter maintenance, energy, support, battery replacement, and terminal value in one currency.
AMR
Alternative inputsPerformance and operation
Use pilot evidence or a vendor simulation on the same scope.
Initial investment
Include control, integration, safety, and training beyond vehicle price.
Recurring, replacement, and residual
Enter maintenance, energy, support, battery replacement, and terminal value in one currency.
AGV and AMR fleet and investment comparison
AGV design peak
10 vehicles
2 chargers · $757,000
AMR design peak
9 vehicles
2 chargers · $583,000
Higher base NPV
AMR
Difference $242,700
Fewer design vehicles
AMR
Difference 1 vehicles
Cycle and per-vehicle capacity
| Alternative | Cycle distance | Travel + traffic | Total cycle | Rated trips | Battery duty | Effective trips | Effective units/vehicle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGV | 320m | 320s | 490s | 7.35/h | 84.21% | 5.57/h | 5.57/h |
| AMR | 320m | 238.93s | 408.93s | 8.8/h | 86.96% | 7.04/h | 7.04/h |
Normal, design, and stress fleet sizing
| Alternative and scenario | Demand | Motion only | Availability adjusted | Charging adjusted | Availability allowance | Charging allowance | Reserve | Total fleet | Chargers | Utilization |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGV · Normal | 40/h | 6 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 79.82% |
| AGV · Design peak | 50/h | 7 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 89.8% |
| AGV · Stress | 60/h | 9 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 82.89% |
| AMR · Normal | 40/h | 5 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 81.14% |
| AMR · Design peak | 50/h | 6 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 78.88% |
| AMR · Stress | 60/h | 7 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 85.19% |
Charger count is an average-slot budget obtained from concurrent charging demand and target utilization. Validate SOC policy, opportunity charging, peak power, and concurrent charging separately.
Cost, payback, and NPV comparison
| Alternative | Vehicle CAPEX | Charger CAPEX | Net initial investment | Base monthly OPEX | Sustained payback | First / discounted payback | NPV | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGV | $650,000 | $20,000 | $757,000 | $9,500 | Not recovered | Not recovered / Not recovered | -$286,670 | -13.8% |
| AMR | $495,000 | $18,000 | $583,000 | $8,540 | 57.46 months | 57.46 months / Not recovered | -$43,971 | 4.33% |
AGV · Target-payback requirement
36 months · Target missed
- Required steady gross benefit
- $38,392
- Monthly benefit gap
- $16,042
- Cumulative value at target
- -$505,338
AMR · Target-payback requirement
36 months · Target missed
- Required steady gross benefit
- $31,135
- Monthly benefit gap
- $8,785
- Cumulative value at target
- -$276,730
Sensitivity scenarios
| Alternative and scenario | Net initial investment | Steady gross benefit | Base monthly OPEX | NPV | ROI | Sustained payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGV · Base | $757,000 | $22,350 | $9,500 | -$286,670 | -13.8% | Not recovered |
| AGV · Benefit down | $757,000 | $17,880 | $9,500 | -$498,934 | -30.77% | Not recovered |
| AGV · Initial cost up | $908,400 | $22,350 | $9,500 | -$438,070 | -21.89% | Not recovered |
| AGV · Recurring cost up | $757,000 | $22,350 | $11,400 | -$407,858 | -21.39% | Not recovered |
| AGV · Combined downside | $908,400 | $17,880 | $11,400 | -$771,522 | -42.31% | Not recovered |
| AMR · Base | $583,000 | $22,350 | $8,540 | -$43,971 | 4.33% | 57.46 months |
| AMR · Benefit down | $583,000 | $17,880 | $8,540 | -$256,235 | -16.2% | Not recovered |
| AMR · Initial cost up | $699,600 | $22,350 | $8,540 | -$160,571 | -4.85% | Not recovered |
| AMR · Recurring cost up | $583,000 | $22,350 | $10,248 | -$151,418 | -5.45% | Not recovered |
| AMR · Combined downside | $699,600 | $17,880 | $10,248 | -$480,282 | -30.17% | Not recovered |
The 20% change is applied one at a time to benefit, initial cost, and recurring cost, then together in the combined downside.
Annual base cash flow
| Alternative and year | Period | Average ramp | Gross benefit | Recurring cost | Battery replacement | Residual value | Nominal cumulative | Discounted cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGV · 1 | 1–12 | 62.5% | $167,625 | $114,000 | $0 | $0 | -$703,375 | -$706,747 |
| AGV · 2 | 13–24 | 100% | $268,200 | $117,420 | $0 | $0 | -$552,595 | -$568,901 |
| AGV · 3 | 25–36 | 100% | $268,200 | $120,943 | $100,000 | $0 | -$505,338 | -$525,859 |
| AGV · 4 | 37–48 | 100% | $268,200 | $124,571 | $0 | $0 | -$361,708 | -$408,995 |
| AGV · 5 | 49–60 | 100% | $268,200 | $128,308 | $0 | $20,000 | -$201,816 | -$286,670 |
| AMR · 1 | 1–12 | 62.5% | $167,625 | $102,480 | $0 | $0 | -$517,855 | -$521,583 |
| AMR · 2 | 13–24 | 100% | $268,200 | $105,554 | $0 | $0 | -$355,209 | -$372,890 |
| AMR · 3 | 25–36 | 100% | $268,200 | $108,721 | $81,000 | $0 | -$276,730 | -$303,354 |
| AMR · 4 | 37–48 | 100% | $268,200 | $111,983 | $0 | $0 | -$120,513 | -$176,248 |
| AMR · 5 | 49–60 | 100% | $268,200 | $115,342 | $0 | $20,000 | $52,345 | -$43,971 |
Assumptions to verify before deciding
- Stress demand needs more vehicles than the design-peak fleet.
- The investment does not achieve sustained payback within the horizon after replacement cost and residual value.
- Cumulative value does not recover the investment by the target month.
This does not replace safety or layout validation
Review ISO 3691-4 and applicable local requirements, risk assessment, operating zones, pedestrian and vehicle traffic, load transfer, docking, speed, braking, doors, lifts, charging, fire, power, cybersecurity, and emergency operation with qualified suppliers, integrators, and safety specialists.
Sources checked 2026-08-12. ISO 3691-4:2023, ISO 8373:2021, and A3 R15.08 material are used only for safety, terminology, and integration-review boundaries; NIST HB 135e2022 is used only for present-value method. None provides vehicle prices, speed, availability, battery efficiency, congestion, or labor-reduction rates.
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